THE STATE OF THE NATION

GODWIN OBASEKI SHARED WITH US THE TRUTH WE ALL KNOW ABOUT THE CURRENT DEPLORABLE FISCAL CONDITIONS OF NIGERIA TODAY.

RATHER THAN SHARE WITH US, HOW THEY PLAN TO STOP THE BLEEDING, THE FINANCE MINISTER, ZAINAB AHMED STARTED YAPPING ABOUT DEBT TO GDP RATIO.

NUMBERS DON'T LIE, DEBT STOCK, DEBT SERVICING,  DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AND REVENUE PROFILES-THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA.

SOUTH AFRICA:

1. South Africa is a $283bn/  N118trillion  sized economy (2020) and Population of 58million.

2. The total loan stock of the South Africans today  is about $217billion/ N91trillion and External Debt of $157billion/N65trillion.

3. The total annual revenue generated by the South Africans is $106billion/N44.52trillion, out of which $85billion/N35.7trillion came through various taxes.

4. The minimum wages in South Africa ranges between N100,000 to 130,000 a month.

5. Personal Income tax revenues accounted for $30.6billion/ N12.9trillion of the S.A. tax revenues. (36% of tax revenues)

6. Company income tax revenues accounted for $14.45billion/ N6.06trillion (17% of the total tax revenues )

7. 79% of South African Adults are fully banked and they have high financial inclusion.

8. Literacy level in South Africa is 94%

9. 21% of South Africans live below the extreme poverty line of $1.25 income per day.

10. Pension Funds Assets under management is $195billion/N82trillion.

11. Inflation rate is 4%

Hypothetically, you can see clearly that the South African annual revenue of N45.52trillion/$106billion can Within 2 years, pay off the total debt stock  of the country, if all other expenses are suspended. 

NOW  LET'S LOOK AT NIGERIA:

10. Nigeria is a $442bn/N185trillion sized economy. Bigger than South Africas in nominal numbers.

11. The total loan stock of Nigeria as at December 2020 was  N31trillion/ $74bn and total External Debt of $29billion.

12. The total annual revenue generated by the Federal government of Nigeria (oil and non oil revenues in 2020 from our Federation account was N3.96trillion.

13. The minimum wage in Nigeria  is N30,000/$61, which are not even paid.

14. Total Tax revenue that got to the FGN  as its share from the federation account was less than N2trillion/$4.76bn. Out of this amount , oil and gas related tax  revenues accounted for 46% of it all .  So, PIT and CIT were actually N1.08trillion/$2.57bn.

15. Only 27% of Nigerians, 31million captured BVN out of the 111million Adults working population are fully banked . Very low financial inclusion and huge informal sector.

16. Literacy level in Nigeria  is 51% , with over 13.5million  out of school children.

17. 50% of Nigerians (95m) live below the extreme poverty line of $1.25 income per day.

Hypothetically, you can see clearly that, the FGN  with an  annual revenue of N3.9trillion will take 8 years to  pay off the total debt stock  of the country,  if all other expenses are suspended.

Now, you can see clearly from the factual analysis above , that Nigeria is in a very deep shithole  and those, who purport to rule us, including the finance minister are digging us deeper into the messier and more putrid smelling part of that hole by borrowing more to fund consumption, without removing the clogs that have held us down from ramping  up productivity and revenue.

Our huge potentials as a people are trapped under this  quasi  unitary satanic structure that is killing our  people daily.

Some ill informed and cheeky  characters, especially, the leadership at the finance ministry, will tell you that with a better nominal Debt to GDP ratio than South Africa's, that Nigeria should borrow more ( what a hogwash ).

They refuse to look at the revenue to debt repayment and servicing capacity matrix, which is key.

Your creditor is not after the size of that 1955 rickety volks 1500 parked in your compound. He is only interested in how much you can earn from your daily works and services to enable you repay what you  owe.

I used the exchange rate of N420/$1 in all my computation. More scary and unfortunate is that this rate is even lower than the intrinsic rate of N485/$1 in the transparent fx market place.

Rather, than lie and engage in needless games of deceitfully mouthing this Debt to GDP cliche every time,  honest and knowledgeable experts raise alarm about the current precarious state of the Nigeria economy, the minister of finance and those saddled with the fiscal management of our economy should seek for help and do the right things.

SO, WHAT CAN WE DO TO TRANSPARENTLY OPEN  UP OUR ECONOMY, PUT OUR HUGE POPULATION TO PRODUCTIVE WORK AND GROW OUR REVENUE BASE ?

1. Pursue quality education with vigour and sincerity.  An educated nation is a resourceful one.

2. Remove all the  corruption laden and driven consumption subsidies. They include the petroleum, power, fx and gas pricing /consumption subsidies.

3. Provide the needed secure and enabling policy environment that can help our people to get to productive works.

The level of insecurity in Nigeria is terrible. We are currently ranked alongside Afghanistan, Yemen and Iraq as one of the most insecure places to live in the world.

Allow the states /municipals to set up and manage their own  police and sheriff services, with key institutional/administrative check valves inserted in the legal frameworks to shield it from megalomaniac abuse by any  governor.

Capital and resources flow into areas that provide huge security of lives and  property, rule of law,  and peace of mind.

Finally and most importantly, for the three key items  above to happen, we must totally discard the satanic verses ( 1999 constitution) chains that have chained  everyone and made Nigeria the poverty capital of the world.

The 1999 abdulsalam Abubakar conjured satanic verses and demonic sorcery, called constitution must be thrown into the Bermuda triangle or evil forest and replaced with a modified version of the 1960 independent constitution that was mutually agreed to by our founding fathers.

May God help us all to be wise. May God help a majority of us to get to that point where,  we can all suspend our silly,  stupid and self annihilating ethnic,  religious, tribal, political and greed driven cleavages to come together and fight  to salvage the soul of NIgeria and that of  generations unborn.

I spent just 45 minutes to type this treatise on my phone. Within this 45 minutes, over 225 compatriots have been pushed into the extreme poverty trapdoor . Think about this and tell me if this is what we want for ourselves as a people. A nation  of poverty,  death and misery.

We can turn Nigeria into a paradise from her current jungle state.

Asking the CBN (who is already in the whole to the tune of N4.9trillion) to print more notes by way and means, every month to be shared as part of FAAC and JAAC , is not the way to fix a near comatose economy.  The choice is yours.

God has already helped us.

Dr Nnaemeka Onyeka Obiaraeri, FICA,  MIRA